When we published this article on March 21, 2018, spring had barely begun and retailers were already looking ahead to the holiday season. The original post considered forecasts from eMarketer and comScore, then explored what they might mean for ecommerce planning.
Those forecasts belong to 2018. They should not be used as today's market outlook or as evidence of what ultimately happened that year. Their broader planning lesson remains useful: a holiday strategy needs to be built early enough for product, site, creative and partner teams to act on it.
What the 2018 forecasts emphasized
The research discussed in the original article anticipated continued US holiday ecommerce growth after a strong 2017 season. Mobile shopping was a central theme, along with consumer confidence and the wider retail environment.
For retailers, the operational questions extended beyond a projected growth rate. Could shoppers find the right products on mobile? Would promotions reach them at the appropriate time? Were partners prepared to support the full season?
The article identified four developments to watch.
1. A broader calendar around Black Friday
Our 2018 outlook argued that planning should cover more than Black Friday and Cyber Monday. It pointed to occasions such as Giving Tuesday, Free Shipping Day and Travel Tuesday as examples of a more varied seasonal calendar.
The useful principle is to identify the moments that fit your category and audience. A travel offer, a charitable initiative and a shipping promotion serve different needs. They should not be treated as interchangeable reasons to discount.
For an affiliate plan, map the season from discovery through delivery deadlines. Give editorial partners time to prepare gift guides, and give promotion-focused partners clear dates, eligible products and restrictions. Build around the customer journey your own data supports.
2. Self-gifting and smaller promotional occasions
The original post highlighted shoppers buying for themselves and discussed the possibility of retailers developing smaller occasions around that behavior, including a proposed Treat Yourself Tuesday.
That was an observation and expectation from 2018, rather than an established rule for every brand. The broader idea is to look beyond a single gift-buyer persona.
Review which products people buy for others, for their households or for themselves. Those motivations may call for different bundles, landing pages and content. A partner who explains everyday product use may serve a different purpose from a publisher producing a traditional gift roundup.
3. Voice-enabled product discovery
The 2018 article named Alexa, Siri and Google Home while considering the potential of voice shopping. It reflected interest in an emerging way for consumers to search and interact with technology.
The planning lesson is to assess new discovery experiences against actual customer behavior. Keep product information accurate, make common questions easy to answer and examine whether a new experience creates a meaningful route to your products.
Avoid assigning revenue expectations to a channel simply because it is receiving attention. Start with a defined use case and a way to observe whether customers engage.
4. Earlier holiday preparation
Our original outlook anticipated some retailers starting their marketing efforts earlier in the year. It also acknowledged the possibility of consumer fatigue.
Preparing early and promoting early are separate decisions. Your team can confirm inventory, commission budgets, partner priorities, samples and creative well before customers are ready for holiday messages.
Create a shared calendar with launch dates, stock updates, offer approvals and shipping cutoffs. Then choose customer-facing timing according to category demand, partner lead times and the value of the message.
Turn the forecast into a working partner plan
A market forecast gives context. Your own margins, customer behavior and operating capacity determine what you can execute.
Start with the categories and customer segments that matter most. Plan appropriate partner roles, confirm that offers work financially and ensure the site experience can support the traffic. Review results during the season so you can adjust placements and messaging while there is still time to act.
Our guide to affiliate program seasonality develops these ideas into a repeatable approach. If your team needs help coordinating its next seasonal program, talk with us about holiday affiliate planning.
